How Do You Predict What is Going to Happen?
Every business and organization needs to anticipate the future. Failure to anticipate where things are going often results in outdated models that hinder organizational effectiveness. But how do you predict what is going to happen?
You can’t. But one part of the solution is found in the title for a book that Peter Drucker once said he wanted to write: “The Future that has Already Happened.”
Joseph Pine, co-author of The Experience Economy, put it this way: “We see what’s going on in the world — not what will happen, but what is already happening that most people do not yet see. Then we develop frameworks that enable others to see it too and determine what they should do about it.”
In other words, the critical skill for anticipating the future is actually the ability to understand the present. That is, to understand the present in a way that goes beyond the obvious. The way things will go tomorrow is to a large extent a function of what is happening now, but which most of us just don’t have the frameworks to see.
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About Matt Perman
Follower of Christ. Husband of one, father of three. Former director of strategy at Desiring God. This blog exists to help equip Christians in good works, because that's what productivity is really about.
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Very good point. Here is how I have traditionally thought of it: In ‘Personal Knowledge’ Michael Polanyi talks about how the universe has a near infinite amount of evidence. We could probably say the same for this planet. The evidence though is relatively meaningless to the individual until he applies himself to focusing in on which pieces of evidence are important and why, and what they mean etc.
His discussion was related to science but the point can be transferred to management and decision making.
So in the same way the scientist gathers evidence and forms a hypothesis and acts on it the manager should carefully note those things of particular import to his sphere of activity and determine what his hypothesis of this evidence could mean.
(I hope that made sense…)